Financial Simulator
Adjust the key drivers for a 50-Ton Hub to see the real-time impact on profitability.
Decentralised Cold Chain Infrastructure for a Resilient Bangladesh.
Adjust the key drivers for a 50-Ton Hub to see the real-time impact on profitability.
A three-tiered physical network and a two-tiered franchise model create a scalable, bankable national ecosystem.
Production
Pre-cooling / CaaS
Grading / VAS
Marketplace
The model's "Base Case" is built on these core inputs. The model is designed to calculate diverse crop and geographic parameters.
| Parameter | Unit | Base | Low | High | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hub Capacity | MT | 50 | 50 | 50 | Nameplate capacity of one cold hub; used to scale all revenues. |
| Utilization | % | 70 | 50 | 90 | Expected average annual utilisation of that capacity; key revenue driver. |
| Tariff | BDT/kg/wk | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | Cooling-as-a-Service fee. Storage/service tariff charged per kg per week. |
| Avg Dwell | weeks | 2 | 1 | 3 | Average storage time; drives number of turns per year. (Fixed at 2 in model) |
| VAS Attach Rate | % | 75 | 40 | 60 | Percentage of VAS uptake |
| VAS Fee | BDT/kg | 1.3 | 1 | 1.3 | Upper end of fee band (BDT 1.0–1.3/kg) used in prospectus. |
| B2B Commission Rate | % | 3 | 2 | 5 | Commission % earned on produce sold via marketplace/B2B channel. |
| Sale Price | BDT/kg | 120 | 100 | 140 | Illustrative sales price of produce; used only to size the commission line. (Fixed at 120 in model) |
| OPEX | M BDT/yr | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.45 | Total yearly operating cost for running one 50-ton hub. (Interpolated) |
Our financial model is built on transparent, first-principle drivers. This section details the core formulae used in the simulator.
$$\text{(Capacity × Util.) × Tariff × 52}$$
Utilization → Occupied Capacity
Tariff × Occupied Capacity
Weekly Revenue
Revenue from storage fees charged per occupied kilogram each week. Scales linearly with utilization.
$$\text{(Capacity × Util.) × Attach × Fee × 52}$$
Attach Rate
VAS Volume
VAS Fee
Weekly VAS Revenue
Revenue from premium handling, grading, or packing applied to a share of total volume. Adds non-linear margin leverage.
$$\text{(Throughput × Price) × Rate}$$
*Throughput = (Capacity × Util.) × (52 / Dwell)
Dwell
Throughput
Sale Price
Total Value
B2B Comm. Rate
Commission
Marketplace income proportional to trade value, decoupled from physical capacity — the network’s digital dividend.
$$\text{Interpolate(Util., P1, P2)}$$
Utilization
OPEX
Operating costs scale gradually with activity level, derived via linear interpolation across validated sensitivity bands.
$$\text{Total Revenue - OPEX}$$
Total Revenue
OPEX
EBITDA
Operating profit before depreciation — the primary performance lens for financial viability.
All equations derive directly from Inputs.csv and Sensitivity.csv validated by Cultivera Analytics v1.2. Each formula reproduces the sheet output within ±0.5% tolerance.
$$EBITDA = (CaaS + VAS + B2B Comm) - OPEX$$
Validated with dynamic interpolation for OPEX across utilization scenarios.
ΔRevenue/ΔUtil (Base Case): ~0.8 M BDT per 10% utilization change.
A proactive framework to manage key financial, operational, and market risks.
Risk: High upfront CAPEX and sensitivity to interest rates.
Mitigation: Utilize a blended finance stack with a 30% first-loss grant component to de-risk senior debt and equity. Standardized, modular hub designs control build-out costs during scale-up.
Risk: Low farmer adoption or hub utilization, leading to failure to cover fixed costs.
Mitigation: Partner with established Partner Organizations (POs) who manage farmer aggregation. Use contract farming and a digital booking platform to forecast and pre-commit capacity, especially in low seasons.
Risk: Price pressure on CaaS tariffs from competitors or informal markets.
Mitigation: Diversify revenue streams beyond CaaS. The VAS and Commission streams are key margin drivers that are less sensitive to simple storage competition. Proactive coordination with DAM and SREDA to ensure tariff stability.
Each hub is a profitable infrastructure asset that delivers measurable climate and social returns.
Farmers Served (per hub)
Tons Post-Harvest Loss Averted
Tons CO₂ Reduced (vs Diesel)
Join us in scaling solar-powered cold infrastructure that pays for itself in savings and climate impact. We are seeking partners and co-investors to deploy this model at scale.